|Iran Macroeconomic Indicators|
|Publication Date: September 12, 2017|
*Note: Data are based on the Iranian calendar year where each month ends approximately on 20th day of the corresponding month in the Western calendar year. Month's numbers for these data are converted to the closest western month only for convenience
Inflation and Exchange Rate
In recent years, despite the growth of liquidity, other factors such as the stabilization of the exchange rate, the improvement of inflation expectations and the rate of interest on the bank had led to a reduction in inflation. Nevertheless, since the beginning of this year, with the relative increase of the exchange rate and rising inflation expectations, inflation has risen from 6.8 percent in March to 7.7 percent in August.
It is expected that in the coming months, along with a decline in bank interest rates that will release the compounded liquidity spring in recent years, the exchange rate will grow, and inflation will increase in both terms of liquidity and exchange rates.
In August, as in recent months, due to the non-issuance of new bonds, the fall in the yield on Treasury bills continued. In the absence of new bonds or the entry of Sakhab to the market, we expect the decline in the rate of interest on Islamic bonds to continue, along with a decline in banks' interest rates, and even get more escalated.
The month of August witnessed a significant increase in the number of transactions and recorded the largest number of transactions over the past three years. Is expected that, the increase in the number of transactions in August, which is partly due to the seasonal prosperity and drop in bank interest rates will be end the recession in the real estate market and hopefully without a sudden change in prices. The rise in prices in the housing sector in recent years had a gap with rise in prices (inflation), and this gap is likely to be lower in the coming months.
The trade balance in recent months, due to the stabilization of the exchange rate and the aftermath of the problem of money transfers in China, has been decreasing, which is expected to improve with increasing in exchange rates and resolving China's problems.
Imports and exports figures for May and June are not published until the moment of submission of the report.
The stock market has grown exponentially over the past two months, along with global commodity prices, especially metals. The monthly total returns were 2.8 percent in August, while the yields for metal base groups and metal ores were 20.1 percent and 18.6 percent, respectively.
Assets' Returns (1 Year, Trailing)
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