|Iran Macroeconomic Indicators|
|Publication Date: November 08, 2017|
*Note: Data are based on the Iranian calendar year where each month ends approximately on 20th day of the corresponding month in the Western calendar year. Month's numbers for these data are converted to the closest western month only for convenience
Inflation and Exchange Rate
Despite rising exchange rates and lowering bank interests, annual inflation has not risen significantly, as short-term deposits, which have shifted largely to different markets and lead to inflation, have turned into long-term deposits in order to gain interests which they have been getting before.
With regard to the moving trend of point-to-point inflation, if nothing significant happens outside the forecast, although inflation is expected to increase annually, we do not expect to increase by more than 10% by the end of the year and this year is probably the first year that one-digit inflation for the second consecutive year will be repeated in the Iranian economy.
Once again, we emphasize that monetary policy and Central Bank controlling rules of the approved interest rates will make the upcoming inflation trend.
Serious monitoring of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy has led to, adherence to the approved rate of interest from banks and related institutions, and there is no higher interest payment in the banking system. This has been the reason for willingness to trade government bonds in the stock exchange, which caused an increase in the price of the trade and reduction in yield to maturity.
According to the previous analysis, the growth trend for the volume of real-estate transactions, coupled with a slightly rising in prices, which indicates that the housing sector is in the pre-boom period.
The stability of the exchange rate in the first six months of the current year has led to an increase in imports and a decrease in exports, causing the trade surplus of the first six months of the year to turn into a trade deficit in the same period of this year. In October, with the increase of the exchange rate trade balance has been improved, and it is expected that exports will continue to grow and imports are expected to be lower, and the negative gap created in the first half of the year will be improved by the end of the year.
In recent months, the growth of USDIRR and global commodity prices including oil, urea, methanol and metals have led to the growth of basic industries such as chemicals, metals and refineries. On the date of this report, global prices and the USDIRR rate are balanced, and with maintaining the bank's interest rate at maximum of 15 percent, the stock prices of the mentioned industries will continue to grow sluggishly.
Assets' Returns (1 Year, Trailing)
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